Saturday, November 28, 2009

Friday, November 6, 2009

RECLAIM BANGALORE

Extending an invitation to all concerned citizens of Bangalore, to join a common platform to RECLAIM BANGALORE.

Bangalore is today, arguably one of Asia's fastest growing cities. We are also fast becoming the most polluted, the most congested, the most unsafe on the road. For all the public money spent on widening roads, building flyovers, increasing the number of buses, are we moving any faster, safer or more comfortably? Why are our roads some of the most unsafe for pedestrians in the world? What happened to Bangalore, the garden city? Are we a Sustainable City?

Its time for Bangalore's
civil society to find a way to engage in open and meaningful dialogue with our city planners and administrators. Time to jointly analyze problems and find solutions.

Yes, It's time.

introducing

Bangalore's first Unconference focusing on sustainable transportation solutions.

MobiliCity will bring together urban planners, policy makers, environmentalists and concerned citizens to:

  • Find a framework in which to assess our current trends in transport planning and policy in Bangalore
  • Look at best practices in urban transportation design around the world
  • Discuss the role of pedestrianisation, cycling, mass public transit and other low-carbon transportation alternatives in fostering sustainability
  • Promote free, open, goal oriented discussion amongst the city's civil society

How you can be a part of MobiliCity

  1. Write to us with ideas you have on this issue
  2. Register to lead a session / talk on any issues concerning sustainable transportation.
  3. Volunteer to help in organization of the event.
  4. Turn up at the event and just be part of it.

Date: Nov 21, 2009. Time: 9:30am - 5pm Venue: CiSTUP, IISc, Bangalore


For more details check out mobilicity.praja.in
Contact: Manjari Vishnoi
9611348339
send a mail to:
mobilicity@praja.in


Lets Reclaim Bangalore!
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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Lessons from Israel

Story from Israel... what I like is how the mandatory military service has imbibed qualities for success in its people.

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Sunday, August 16, 2009

Help Us Pick the HuffPost Game Changers: 100 People Who Are Using New Media to Change the World

My Huffpost game changer

Who: Prajav Jha, Founder http://www.praja.in

What: Online Civic Activisim in India

Why: The portal is now an agent of change in Bangalore, India. With a tagline know, care, participate it is a democratic platform for citizens of Bangalore to track civic issues, gather other interested citizens into interest groups, interact with civic authorities and get involved in developing solutions with the administrators of the city. The online platform has changed the way city administrators percieve citizen participation.
Read the Article at HuffingtonPost
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Saturday, August 15, 2009

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Billion strong, but Skills shortage

A SHORTAGE of skills, rather than money, is the biggest stumbling block for India as it scrambles to sustain high economic growth.

As India rushes to build out its infrastructure, it's hampered by a shortage of skilled workers across a whole spectrum: from project managers, engineers, supervisors, to fitters, electricians, pipe layers and others.

Skills, not money, is India's hurdle

Now we have realized why we were stuck at a hindu rate of growth!!! We cant scale up because our schools are so busy cramming the kids on the ABC's that they have churned out vocationally useless people. And the best part, they dont still know!!!
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Saturday, August 8, 2009

(Un)Real Estate

Almost 5 per cent of GDP is contributed by the housing sector, and in the next few years it is expected to rise to 6 per cent. Moreover, the construction sector has also been responsible for the development of over 250 ancillary industries such as cement, steel, paints, brick, timber, building materials, etc. A study by a credit rating agency ICRA shows that the construction industry ranks third among the 14 major sectors in terms of direct, indirect and induced effects in all sectors of the Indian economy. A unit increase in expenditure in the real estate sector can generate a fivefold increase in income.

Yet this is one of the most unregulated markets in the country with shady deals and obscene profits ruling the roost. This lassiez faire sector has allowed anti social elements to get in and muscle power to determine who get the most. This has also led to high prices forcing the unaffordable consumers out of the market. There are massive frauds occuring regularly where promises are not kept and the consumer is left in the lurch. While easy access to credit multiplied this boom it also raised the risk levels for the banks in case of a bust in the bubble and consequently devaulation of the properties.

So what needs to change?
Currently, land, a ‘state’ subject, is under the jurisdiction of the local governments. There is a kaleidoscope of interwoven state, centre and local laws dealing with every parcel of land. This means that there are varying rules, regulations, standards, practices, from town to town across India. The simple concept of replicating ‘best practices’ from town to town across the country does not exist due to a fragmented legal framework. - The Hindu

People take advantages of these loopholes and mostly out for a quick buck. Scams have become so common and brazen that consumers have no confidence in ANY real estate transaction irrespective of how much checking and verification has been done.

Here is a recent scam from a company which made a splash in print and TV. I still remember them dishing out cars as a freebie in return for purchasing a flat from them inspite of retaining the rates at the same levels as the rest in the area. They even featured on TV channels for their freebies.

How long is lassiez faire going to last and where is the regulator?
Real Estate Management (Regulation and Control) Bill is being formulated by the central govt for Delhi and is expected to serve as a reference and model for the rest of the states to follow. It is now being discussed and various objections are being raised in various fora and industry associations. Some others have clearly come out in support. Clearly regardless of the objections the move to have a regulator is a definitely positive step and hope the state overnments follow likewise.

An authority that can issue licences, be responsible for renewal of licences to developers, ratings of developers, architects, contractors and real-estate consultants would have to be set up. Whether it is a regulator which is set up under the aegis of the government or whether self regulation by industry associations is the way forward, the need for some of the above activities to be carried out by a professional body is imperative for sustainable growth of this sector. - The Hindu

Karnataka has taken a step of setting up a certifying system. The need for that is clearly because the registration of deeds and documents does not guarantee the title of the property as it operates on the principle of presumptive rights. The prospective buyer has to consult various sources such as past transactions, mortgage deeds, revenue records and encumbrance certificate to verify the title. Hopefully this is a first step in a series of steps to bring credibility and professionalism in this sector.
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Monday, July 27, 2009

Back to representative currency?

Read this interesting post on a possible anti-fiat currency wave.
Something has to give and will give soon. There is not that much we can do to hedge ourselves except to hold our cash in a few currencies and retain something else that would appreciate against all of them when they begin to engage in competitive devaluations. Regardless of all the arguments touted against gold, it is the anti-fiat money, just as the euro is the anti-dollar.

Will we go back to gold though? Post Bretton Woods collapse the money supply has grown exponentially. Do we have enough gold to go back to?

There are some answers. This video has some suggestions towards the end as to what will be a viable way to go forward. With $13 trillion in debt as of this writing, Ron Paul says it best, fiat money is destroying the US dominance. The rest of the world will move away if it doesnt get its act together.

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Monday, June 22, 2009

Back to the basics

The dangers of being on the top of the food chain is there is nobody to cull the overpopulation of people based on carrying capacity of the space we occupy. I shudder to think of the day when we need to do that ourselves. Close to 40% of the worlds people are in India and China. Yet in India we work on the we 2 ours 2 philosophy. Even at sub 2% growth we are going to run out of space on earth in a little more than 700 years. So we need to get to zero population growth very quickly. Not celebrate more octomoms. There will be attendant issues, but if we cannot manage the population growth forget about controlling the available resources. Like Prof. Bartlett says it is our inability to understand the exponential function that will be our undoing.

In the meantime, voices against urbanization demand we stop building living and working spaces because we destroy the natural resources. Is this possible? How do we fulfil the requirements of growing life on earth without being able to occupy more space on the planet? Becoming cavemen eating berries is not the answer. We cant have 6 billion people go back to sitting around idle hunting for food. We are going to run out of berries anyway. What happens to the economy then? I can understand the argument to get away from the dollar and choosing a more neutral currency. I can even discuss the options of going back to gold (or a widely available valuable metal of you choosing) standard. But barter system living in caves! Thats stretching things bit too far.
Platinum LEED accredited, 1 Bryant Place, NY
Its not the economy which is directly harming the environment, it is the people and their requirements. But, we cant have the economy that we have by living in caves. So what is the next best thing? Sustainable living.

In my view we need to be able to occupy the land we live and build what we want without upsetting the balance of nature. We can do that only by measuring the amount environmental damage a building or habitation causes and creating an offset somewhere else for an equivelant amount.

The carbon credit system is the first step in measuring damage and allow the creation of offsets. The sustainable living of the future is going to have carbon credit play a major role in it. The carbon miles on a persons card will determine the cost of carrying the person on earth. Sorry to sound harsh but in the near future it will define how valuable a person is when it comes to culling time.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

No to bail outs, one more voice

Here is another opinion on why govt should stay out of businesses. The conclusion, you dont make it any better by butting in with a wad of cash. Indian govt can learn some lessons here. Its time to let go of public sector and definitely Satyam. Let it be run by its new owner the way they want. Learn to let go and be a watch dog.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Peter Schiff
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political HumorNewt Gingrich Unedited Interview
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Sunday, June 7, 2009

Disingenuous disinvestment

Here is Montek Singh Ahluwalia, a conservative economist, trying to do work in a populist, socialist govt. I would have preferred him as the FM, but the intentions of the govt are very clear in putting a left leaning Pranab Mukherjee as FM. Now back to the planning commission in his second stint deputy chairman, he is willing to set a plan to get deficit down and get govt out of the public sector, but clearly is setting limits and caveats on all.

Now Montek in an interview with CNN IBN has indicated even with disinvestment, govt control of 51% will exist. Why? Frankly I dont want my money going to running public sector companies, however navrathan they may be. Please give me a reason why my money needs to go into making watches or soaps? If I believed in a story I will take equity and invest. I dont think these symbolic lip service attempts at disinvestment is going to help.


Poor audio

Listen to Jim Cramer's opinion on GM. I can draw a parellel with our continued clinging to the public sector units. Government should be out of doing business with tax payer money. No good has ever come out of this, especially in mature sectors. They should only be regulators. The eagerness to jump into everything even if there isnt a systemic risk is too much for fallible human beings running the govt.

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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

The Left Overs

Even if the communist parties change their name to socialist party and stop calling each other comarades their economic policies are scary. Here is a preview of their intentions.

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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Population, Arithmetic, and Energy

A landmark presentation "Population, Arithmetic, and Energy" by Prof. Albert A. Bartlett. The 8 part series is enlightning to say the least and depressing to some extent. What lessons does it hold for India? Will quality of life solutions in India fall flat because of our population?

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Sunday, May 10, 2009

Friday, May 8, 2009

No more business as usual

Here are two interviews that to me stand out as sane voices in this period of uncertainity. Should I take heart in the fact that people like this are around or be concerned that it seems a long road ahead for the recovery of the US economy.

Elizabeth Warren has the unenviable job of figuring out what changes are needed in regulations so the mistakes are not repeated when the US economy gets back on track. She has a good head on her shoulders. Good luck to her. Take a look.














Eliot Spitzer went over and above his call of duty to try and fix the system when he was the AG & NY Gov. One highlight in his speech is while people are looking for legal wrongdoing most mistakes have been really bad judgment within legal framework. Here he is.














These choices are courtesy Arianna Huffington another stunning woman I admire. I share some of her views on socialism in losses and capitalism in gains. Take a listen.












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Saturday, April 25, 2009

SEBI as a regulator

Very enlightening discussion with SEBI Chairman CB Bhave on how the Global meltdown, Satyam, Pyramid saimira and others were handled. The highlight to me was how well the financial regulators and ministries work together to tackle crises, while the other arms of the govt (especially the ones handling homeland security) compete to bring the each other down. Why is this?

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Thursday, April 16, 2009

Frugal Innovation

Nano was hailed as being the worlds cheapest car. Tata engineers had to use frugal Innovation to ensure they made a car which could cost less. India as a culture had frugal built into it. Mostly because of the fight for resources given the density of population. One such area India is pioneering frugal innovation is healthcare.

The public sector has been overwhelmed, which is not surprising considering how little India’s government spends on health as a share of national income. Accordingly, nearly four-fifths of all health services are supplied by private firms and charities—a higher share than in any other big country

Some examples from this very interesting article in the Economist

“beating heart” surgery causes little pain and does not require general anaesthesia or blood thinners, patients are back on their feet much faster than usual. This approach, pioneered by Wockhardt, an Indian hospital chain, has proved so safe and successful that medical tourists come to Bangalore from all over the world.

Most of the new, expensive imaging machines are only a little better than older models. Meanwhile, vast markets for poorer patients go unserved. “We got out of this arms race a few years ago,” he says. Fortis now promises only that its scanners are “world class”, not the newest

International experts vouch that the care is good, not least because Aravind’s doctors perform so many more operations than they would in the West that they become expert. Furthermore, the staff are rotated to deal with both paying and non-paying patients so there is no difference in quality. Monitor’s new report argues that Aravind’s model does not just depend on pricing, scale, technology or process, but on a clever combination of all of them.
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Financial Chicken Soup

Isnt allowing the companies to go bust a better way of handling the sinking ships than pumping in money in the form of intervention? Why convert zombie institutions into living zombies? Are the bailouts a temporary Keynesian itch or a permanent move to socialism?

Speaking of which, will the Satyam episode lead to better bankruptcy laws and restructuring procedures in India? What we did with Satyam needs to be codified and more options for liquidation introduced.

Elizabeth Warren, Leo Gottlieb Professor of Law at Harvard Law School, says Capitalism without bankruptcy is like christianity without hell. Take a listen.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c
Elizabeth Warren Pt. 2
thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Economic CrisisPolitical Humor
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Monday, April 13, 2009

Transformation of a city

Bangalore has been thru exponential growth in the past three decades. It has mostly been driven by the IT/ITES industry. Most of this development has been uncontrolled. There were no plans that administrators worked towards. There was no vision of how they wanted the city to grow. They reacted mostly. The growth of automobiles have outgrown the capacity of the city to support them. Humans have lost out to automobiles. Partly because the administrators were decades behind the demands both in capability and capacity and were unprepared for this growth. Now they are so behind they only have time to catch up and firefight the troubles.

Not too many people believe this can be turned around. Like Prof T G Sitharam, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IISc, told Indian Express: “We do not want to touch Bagalore right now. The city is in a mess and there is not much scope of development.".

But it cant be all that bad. How do we turn the city around? Are there any examples in other countries we can borrow? The video tries to explain how some cities have refocussed their priorities and have emerged more citizen friendly. Can this work for Bangalore?

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Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Product Space map

The other interesting conversation I have been having this week on forums, reading about on blogs and talking about with friends has been on the topic of getting the people on the bottom of the pyramid to become wealthier so the per capita wealth goes up and hence the GDP.

The finance minister was picked on by people in forums for harping on growth rates. Unless we have a measure which can include happiness quotient you cannot distinguish between good growth and bad growth. Nevertheless, we know despite the fact that we stand fourth on the GDP right behind China, we languish way below around 130 on the per capita wealth. One of the key imperatives has become to get the GDP up rapidly while trying to ensure the growth comes from the bottom of the pyramid and not from the top and more importantly it is environmentally sustainable.

It has been pointed out that if India and China were to get their per capita up to wealthier levels there will be a shortage of commodities. So, as if the growth challenge was not enough, environmental sustainability has to be built into the growth. Less populated countries had the luxury to have one of the factors of production, Land, to be taken for granted. If they ran out of land they had colonies which provided land for their production needs. India and China have to consider this factor of production a scarcity which then makes them rely on Labour and Capital to increase their growth

Traditionally, the economies of poor and developing countries often depended almost exclusively on a handful of products at most. Why has it been so difficult for these countries to start up new activities suprring economic growth and lifting themselves out of poverty? Researchers have found that a country that has developed the means to generate and export one product can easily branch into the other provided it chose a set of products that leveraged the Capital and Labour developed for that product.

The resulting network, which the four researchers call the product space, maps out world exports. The map shows how industries gather in clusters according to how likely it is that that those industries thrive in the same countries. The rich countries of the industrialized world tend to have broad portfolios of industries, and accordingly occupy large areas of the product space, usually including much of the network's core. Fast-growing developing countries such as China, Thailand, and Hungary are strong in some of those central, well-connected regions. The poorest countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa, tend to specialize in a few of the peripheral products--such as oil for Nigeria and copper for Zambia

India would do well to draw out a product space map to identify the areas which can help speed up the growth and get us on the path to higher per capita. While we are at it lets also put in a carbon credit infrastructure, and yes, bring back the $1.5 trillion black money to double the GDP in one day.
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Black Money and the Indian Economy

As per a 2006 report by Swiss Banking Association, India with $1456 billion or $1.4 trillion has more money in Swiss banks than rest of the world combined. This doesnt include amount stashed away in the other tax havens around the word or the ones in suitcases.

To put it in perspective how far does this money go?

- Twice the GDP of our country
- Is 13 times larger than India's foreign debt. Which will mean India can be debt free and still have 12 times more money to invest in infrastructure which can increase GDP.
- 75 crore poor people can get 1 lakh each, which can earn them a decent 1K per month in FD interest alone and put capital in the white market to fund projects.

There is culture of hoarding among Indians. I cant put my finger on why that is. Is it our lack of a social security system that makes us hoard? There is a PF system that is more reliable than any other in the world, but we still hoard.

The bottom line is we are hoarding for a future that may not exist. On the other hand if that money were utilized for creating a better infrastructure today it would be far more effective than hoarding for a world that may not be worth living in.

BJP today took this up as a major poll plank in a news conference. LK Advani (prime ministerial candidate in this elections) promised to make efforts to bring back this black money if they came to power. The move by BJP to announce this is in response to comments by people in the media that there arent any substantive issues being discussed and that the agenda has largely been negative. There was also a deliberate avoidance of mention of the poster boy Varun Gandhi who the media have whipped up to keep ratings up. I am waiting to see how the media takes up this topic.
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Thursday, March 19, 2009

Have we finally caught up?

ET reports, in a recent conclave Jason Pontin, the charismatic editor and publisher of MIT's "Technology Review" - the publication of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - confidently proclaims that India is going to dominate the innovation space.

The nature of the technologies emerging from innovation labs around the world today is completely democratic, having the power to touch billions - the literate and the unlettered, the affluent as well as those at the bottom of the pyramid.

If the Indian innovators, tuned to the needs of the less advantaged in their country, are coming out with technologies to address this space, then large multinational corporations, admittedly driven by marketing compulsions, are also now focusing on this segment.
Most of these innovations have been in the field of IT. This is because of the international exposure the knowledge workers have got and their understanding of the enterprenurial spirit of the west. But it is quickly spreading to other domains as well.

Traditionally Innovation has been the preserve of the west. Availability of capital and the ability to take risks made them pioneers in consumer R&D. Since independence India's R&D was government driven and focusssed on basic sciences. A closed and socialistic economy with not much of a consumer movement didnt help either. The opening up of the economy in 1991 has brought with it consumerism as well as availability of capital. It was still a trickle in the early days but is now changing rapidly with access to internet and the blossoming of the knowledge economy.

Maybe Nandan Nilekani's famous demographic dividend, is finally beginning to pay off. Speaking of which he got away easy on my favourite show

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c
Nandan Nilekani
comedycentral.com
Daily Show Full EpisodesImportant Things w/ Demetri MartinPolitical Humor
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Monday, March 16, 2009

Lessons in Social Networking

This report in TOI and Outlook was a reminder of how we as a society treat freedom of speech and expression in the web 2.0 world.

Ajit D was a 19 year old blogger who setup an Orkut community called "I hate shiv sena" attracted around 5000 members. There were several posts and discussions by anonymous persons who alleged that Shiv Sena was trying to divide the country on region and caste basis.

Reacting to these posts, the Shiv Sena youth wing's state secretary registered a criminal complaint at Thane police station in August 2008 based on which FIR was registered against Ajith under Sections 506 and 295A pertaining to hurting public sentiment.

In its ruling the supreme court bench said, "We cannot quash criminal proceedings. You are a computer student and you know how many people access internet portals. Hence, if someone files a criminal action on the basis of the content, then you will have to face the case. You have to go before the court and explain your conduct."

While IPC recognises libel, Shiv Sena did not file a case under Sec 499. A case was filed under Sec 506 (If threat be to cause death or grievous hurt, etc) and Sec 295A (Deliberate and malicious acts, intended to outrage religious feelings or any class by insulting its religion or religious beliefs).

The web 2.0 has brought social networking to the hands of teenagers who are barely out of school. They use the medium like a dairy. They gossip and post entries about their desires and feelings like they would on their dairy, except they now have the ability to attract crowds from around the world who can share their thoughts. This brings with it attendant legal issues like the case above. Do these kids know enough law to be safe rather than sorry?

The most destructive piece was the below

The Bench remained unmoved by the submission that if the case was not quashed, similar cases could be registered in other states and even in foreign countries. "If a case is filed in a foreign country go and face it. You should know what you are doing on internet," the Bench observed

This raises uncomfortable questions on multiple fronts. It would be naive of us to believe the internet is going to consist of social networks whose participants will know the laws of all the countries. If I made a comment on China should I be asked to understand the constitutional rights of China to be able to post? If a person knowing chinese law posted a comment on my site would I be held responsible for that comment even if I didnt know the laws he was operating out of? This kills the whole concept of collaboration to protect a bunch of intolerant people.

Does the supreme court understand the implications of the internet and social networks? Does it understand that the kind of control they want to exert is not acceptable in an internet world?

I dont think the laws of the brick and mortar world can be applied to the world of web 2.0. We are making a big mistake which should be corrected before too much damage is done.
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Saturday, March 14, 2009

Jon Stewart and The Daily Show

I am impressed by Jon Stewart. Undeniably a democrat. He takes cover under the comedy central banner but not the one to pull his punches. I dont live in the US so I dont watch him on TV but catch up when his shows get uploaded on The Daily Show website

I see Nandan Nilekani is up on 18th. Hopefully it will be just the book discussed. Nandan needs to be on guard as Jon could rake up some rhetoric on the outsourcing and job losses. The fight against the H1B visa tightening can be hard to defend in this economy where US is fighting high unemployment rates.

I was up early waiting for the Jim Cramer toasting. I found links on YouTube earlier than the full episode came up on the daily show website. Jim came in with his sleeves rolled up for a fight and went back with the tail between his legs. What nailed him was his video's on TheStreet.com never meant for TV. In those videos he explained how he manipulated the market and news networks to make short term gains.

But like Jon said this isnt just about Jim Cramer. Its about how the financial news networks position themselves as advisors to the public. And when things go wrong hide behind the disclaimer that the market is risky and you are by yourself on your research. That is irresponsible to say the least. If they, as a financial information and news provider are not reliable for data as research what then are they there for? Why should anybody watch it if it is just a talk show spreading rumors with no value? Might as well move the shows to comedy central and do stand up comedy. Wrong calls are fine but if you are unable to dig out facts and rely solely on the word of the company representatives on TV then you must be naive. You also are then guilty of being an accomplice.

I find CNBC-TV18 India a little better on that front. I did find after the Satyam saga they tried to come down hard on some companies with shady balance sheet and shady equity transactions and holdings but they are unable to cross the line and call their bluff. Probably for the fear of aleinating their clients who keep them in the business. So how far will they go to holding the companies feet to the fire, It will be intresting to watch. There are some intelligent people like Udyan Mukherjee and Latha Venkatesh. They should take the lead.

Nevertheless, here is the 3 part blowout where Jon skewered an apolegetic Jim Cramer. Must watch





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